Weekly overview and outlook.

• Global manufacturing production data was more mixed, but did on balance
improve. With regard to orders, data point to improvement in most areas.
• The service PMI improved consistently indicating a broader-based recovery in developed countries.
• In the US improving US claims and chain store sales data added some optimism about the state of the consumer.
• In the UK the lift-off in house prices continues. This will probably keep the BoE from launching further easing measures.
• The ECB and the BoE kept policy measures unchanged. Signs of increasing optimism were seen from Jean-Claude Trichet at the press conference.

A week ahead.

• US retail sales are expected to be dragged into the red by a negative payback from
the “clunkers” programme, but the report is expected to show underlying improvement.
• Germany ZEW and regional US indicators are expected to indicate further optimism.
• FOMC minutes will provide interesting detail about FOMC thinking and updated economic projections.
• Speeches from the Fed’s Kohn and Dudley and a speech by the ECB’s Trichet will be important events.
• Euroland and US inflation data will take a back seat.
• In Asia, the Bank of Japan is expected to keep its target rate unchanged, but
quantitative easing (QE) measures could be cut back.

 

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